Redmond, Oregon 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

699
FXUS66 KPDT 090348
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
848 PM PDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.EVENING UPDATE...While showers continue tapering off eastward
through the Northern Blues, pockets of rain continue to approach
along the WA/OR Cascades. There had been few lighting strikes but
mainly outside of airport areas. However, isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the eastern mountains later tonight. High confidence
(>70%) on the storms being brief as the model guidance shows weak
instability (CAPE values under 500 J/Kg). CG lightning or thunder
may occur as well but with a 30% probability, suggested by the
latest HREF. These oncoming showers may briefly bring some outflow
winds up to 30 mph at the Cascades through 06Z/11PM tonight.
Otherwise, the remaining areas will be breezy. The increased
westerly flow will also influence these winds as well. The weather
should become calm for late in the overnight into tomorrow morning.
Feaster/97

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 PM PDT Tue Apr 8 2025/

AVIATION...00z TAFs...Light showers will continue to roll through
the forecast area, impacting mainly DLS, PDT, and ALW. Sub-VFR
conditions are not anticipated, however cigs may briefly reach
down to MVFR levels under showers. Confidence was not high enough
to include mention in the TAFs, however. Otherwise, rain is
expected to taper off after 03z, leaving clearing skies and light,
terrain-driven winds tonight into Wednesday morning. Evans/74

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 PM PDT Tue Apr 8 2025/

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

1. Isolated showers with embedded thunderstorms along the eastern
   mountains this afternoon.

2. Drying and warming begins Wednesday through Thursday

Current radar is showing some stratus based showers moving across
the north central and northern portion of the region. Ground
observations reporting light rainfall of 0.01 to 0.03 inches of rain
in the last hour along the Cascade crests of OR & WA with the same
amounts reported along the eastern slopes and into Yakima. Satellite
shows perfectly formed clouds wrapped around the center of the low
just of the BC coast and steadily moving northeast with a surface
front that will push across the Cascades over the next few hours.
Breezy winds will accompany the remainder of the front across the
typical wind prone areas through the CWA.

Models are in decent agreement with the center of the low matching
with the satellite and remaining off the BC coast at the moment.
Precipitation will steadily continue to make its way across the
region ans the low continues to push onshore. Ensembles show roughly
10-20% probabilities of a few isolated thunderstorms could sneak
their way across the region. Cams models show the highest
probabilities to be along the eastern mountains. With the lack of
daytime heating, confidence in thunderstorms is low (10-15%). Much
of the precipitation is forecasted to remain along the ridge tops of
the Cascades and the Blues with lighter rain fall totals across the
lower elevations. The 24 hour probability of 0.15-0.25 inches of
rain for the higher elevations is 80-100% with probabilities for
0.01-0.03 inches for the foothills, Basin and adjacent valleys with
some isolated areas seeing near 0.05 inches. Very few isolated
showers may linger over the mountains as the ridge builds into the
PacNW.

Models are in firm agreement with the upper level ridge beginning to
flatten by late this evening as an upper level ridge begins to fill
in from the south. By Wednesday the ridge will have strengthened
allowing for warmer and dryer temperatures to return to the region.
Models show the upper level ridge to continue building over the
region and persisting through Thursday night. Bennese/90

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Friday will be mainly dry
across the area, except for some light precipitation in the
mountains. On Saturday, a trough will move into the Pacific
Northwest. Saturday will see the best precipitation chances of the
extended period, though even then, they will mainly be confined
to the mountains. The trough will move eastward later Saturday
into Sunday and by Sunday any lingering precipitation will end.
Dry conditions are then expected Sunday into Monday as a ridge
builds into the region. Another round of precipitation may affect
the region on Tuesday, though there are quite a few discrepancies
in the guidance by then.

Even with the trough moving across the area on Saturday, QPF is
fairly light with about 0.20 inches along the crests of the Cascades
and Blues and a bit more in the eastern Oregon Mountains.

Snow levels will be fairly low...decreasing from between 3000 feet
in the Washington Cascades to almost 7000 feet over southern and
eastern areas Friday morning to between 3000-3500 feet by Saturday
afternoon.  However, because of the low QPF, any snow accumulations
will be confined to the crests and should be 2 inches or less.

It will also be breezy Friday and especially Saturday with the
trough moving through the region.  WInd gusts on Friday will be in
the 20 to 25 mph range with higher gusts.  On Saturday, gusts will
be more widespread and 25 to 35 mph especially in the Kittitas
Valley, Cascade gaps, Simcoe Highlands, Columbia Basin and Foothills
of the Blue Mountains.  Some local areas could gust even higher. NBM
probabilities of wind gusts >=25 mph are very high on Friday and
Saturday, though the area is more widespread on Saturday.
Probabilities are 70 to 90 percent Friday and 80 to 100 percent
Saturday.  However, probabilities of wind gusts >= 39 mph are mainly
30 to 50 percent on Friday with some higher numbers in the Kittitas
Valley.  On Saturday, both probabilities and areal coverage are
higher with probabilities 50 to 70 percent in most areas and 60 to 90
percent in the Kittitas Valley.

The deterministic solution keeps the ridge around longer, and is
more supported by the ensembles.  If this were to come to fruition
then perhaps Tuesday would be drier then currently forecast.
However, since it is a week away, we can see how the differing model
scenarios play out over time.

Temperatures on Friday will be near normal and then will decrease to
5 to 10 degrees below normal on Saturday.  Highs will rise again and
be 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  65  43  73 /  40   0   0   0
ALW  42  62  45  70 /  70   0   0   0
PSC  40  65  41  73 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  34  63  41  68 /  10   0   0  10
HRI  40  66  41  73 /  30   0   0   0
ELN  35  60  40  65 /  20   0   0  10
RDM  33  68  37  73 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  38  62  41  72 /  70   0   0   0
GCD  35  65  41  74 /  20   0   0   0
DLS  40  65  45  69 /  40   0   0  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

EVENING UPDATE...97
SHORT TERM...90
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...74